Housing Starts at 12-Year Low

Housing starts and permits for new homes fell to their lowest level in 12 years in August, as the problems in the mortgage and real estate markets caused builders to slam the brakes on new construction.  Permits, which are taken as a sign of builders' confidence in the market, fell to an annual rate of 1.31 million from 1.39 million in July.  Economists had been looking for that number to fall to a 1.34 million rate.

The pace of building for single family homes fell even more sharply, falling 7 percent to an annual rate of only 988,000, a 14-year low.  Permits for single-family homes fell 8 percent to 926,000.

The downturn in housing and construction and turmoil in the credit markets were two of the reasons cited by the Federal Reserve when it cut its targeted interest rate for the first time in four years on September 18th.  The slump in housing and home building has been a drag on the U.S. economy for more than a year, and there are growing fears the building slump could help tip the nation into a recession later this year.

What do you think?  Are we on the brink of a recession?  Are we already in one?  Was the Fed's move to lower interest rates too little too late?  We'd love to hear your opinion.  Just click the comment link below and tell us what you think.

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Interest Rate Drop May Mean Little to Homebuyers

Home buyers (and home sellers as well) may be disappointed that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut won't translate into lower monthly mortgage payments and a revival of the housing market.

The housing industry, now in the second year of its worst recession since 1991, erased 0.6 percent from gross domestic product in the second quarter.  Home prices are set to fall on a year-over-year basis for the first time since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The Sept. 18th decision by the Federal Open Market Committee to reduce its benchmark interest rate to 4.75 percent from 5.25 percent doesn't mean mortgages will follow.

The Fed lowered its target for federal funds 13 times from Jan. 3, 2001, to June 25, 2003. After each cut, mortgage costs fell eight times and rose five times.

Many analysts are saying, "Lock in a rate now… long term bond yields will put a floor under how much further mortgage payments can and will go down."

What do you think?  Will the Fed's decision to lower the rate 50 basis points really make any difference in the struggling housing market?  We'd love to hear your opinion.  Just click the "Comment" link below and tell us what you think.

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Home Foreclosures Continue to Surge

New foreclosure activity continued to surge in August, rising 36% from July and more than doubling from a year earlier.

The jump in foreclosure filings [in August] might be the beginning of the next wave of increased foreclosure activity, as a large number of subprime adjustable rate loans are beginning to reset now.

Another significant factor in the increased level of foreclosure activity is that the number of REO filings [bank repossessions] is increasing dramatically, which means a greater percentage of homes entering foreclosure are going back to the banks.

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Another Rate Cut?  

Following the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cut on 9/18, there is wide disagreement among economists about whether the Fed is done, or if the recent move was just a start.

Investors in a market in which participants bet on future Fed moves are expecting at least one more rate cut by the end of the year, perhaps as early as the end of the next meeting on Halloween.

Some say "..more rate cuts are inevitable…" while others say, "..that's it for this year.."

We'd love to hear what you think?  Do you think the Fed will try to further bolster the economy by lowering rates again this year, or do you think they'll sit tight for now?  Leave us your comment or thought below by clicking on the "Comments" link below.

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